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For restaurants across the United States, the holiday season is an exciting marathon of busy dining rooms, festive specials, and abundant revenue opportunities. Black Friday often marks the unofficial launch of the end-of-year shopping frenzy, and December sees the hustle and bustle continue with holiday gatherings, office parties, and family celebrations. Understanding how to forecast demand during these peak periods can mean the difference between thriving or struggling under the pressure—and solid data from the previous year is your best compass.
According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), holiday retail sales in 2021 grew by an impressive 14.1% to $886.7 billion. While these figures encompass all retail sectors, the ripple effects are also felt in the restaurant industry, with heightened consumer spending driving both dine-ins and takeouts. If your establishment can accurately predict demand, you’ll capitalize on the euphoric holiday spirit and keep your diners delighted without missing potential revenue.
This article aims to show how last year’s data can guide your Black Friday and December sales strategy. From analyzing key metrics like daily foot traffic, ticket averages, and online orders, to refining your marketing plan and staff scheduling, these data-driven steps will help your restaurant glide through the holiday rush—leaving your guests satisfied and you basking in a well-managed surge in sales.
Before we talk about the possibilities of this year’s holiday boom, it’s vital to examine your restaurant’s performance from last year. This initial evaluation should answer basic but essential questions:
Compiling this data in an accessible format—such as a spreadsheet or a POS (payment system) dashboard—will lay the foundation for more in-depth analysis. The numbers will reveal where you excelled, where you fell short, and crucially, how you can strategize for an even better performance this season.
Once you have last year’s data laid out, it’s time to look at it with a critical eye. Here are some of the most impactful KPIs to consider:
Tracking how many people you served each day in November and December can help you spot patterns. For instance, you might notice that Mondays remained slow, but Thursdays saw a notable uptick in reservations, possibly linked to office parties or “pre-weekend” festivities. By identifying these patterns, you’ll know how to adjust staffing levels and promotional pushes on the right days.
A big chunk of your seasonal revenue might come from just a few busy weeks, so keep a close eye on average check size during Black Friday weekend and throughout December. Maybe last year, cocktails and appetizers were ordered more frequently; or your limited-time holiday menu items boosted the check. Understanding these details ensures you know which dishes or promotions to highlight this year.
If you introduced special holiday offerings, did they generate more revenue and positive reviews compared to your regular fare? Did any new items flop with your diners? Reviewing this performance will guide you in streamlining menus, improving dish variety, and crafting new seasonal offerings that better align with customer preferences.
How effectively did your team handle last December’s busy evenings? Were there bottlenecks in the ordering or payment process that led to long wait times? Did you have enough cooks for peak hours or enough servers for large groups? Examining staff performance data (including clock-in and clock-out times, table turnover rates, and daily tip amounts) helps you plan a more efficient schedule and place staff where they’re most needed.
Your social media ads, holiday email campaigns, and local sponsorships might have driven more foot traffic than you realized. Or perhaps certain campaigns underperformed. Analyzing your marketing spend versus the revenue generated during the promotional period can help you focus on the most profitable marketing channels this time around.
The next step is to interpret the data and find correlations or trends. Look for patterns such as:
With these insights in hand, you’ll have a steady compass for navigating this year’s holiday hustle. It’s akin to tasting a recipe before committing it to your menu—analyzing data first lets you adjust your strategy before the busy season is in full swing.
Historical data is invaluable, but it’s only one chunk of the puzzle. You should also consider external factors that could significantly impact this year’s performance, such as:
By blending these external insights with last year’s data, you’ll get a more accurate forecast and be nimble enough to adapt to real-time conditions.
With patterns and external factors in mind, calculate a sensible forecast for Black Friday and the December holiday period. This forecast helps you allocate resources effectively—ordering the right amount of inventory, scheduling staff for the busiest shifts, and pacing your marketing campaigns to sustain momentum across the season.
When establishing goals, keep them:
Now that you know what you want to achieve, it’s time to attract diners and keep your restaurant top of mind throughout the holiday rush. Every restaurant’s marketing mix differs based on location, budget, and style, but a few proven approaches can help:
Extend your restaurant’s Black Friday strategy to stand out. While retail shops open their doors early, why not lure hungry shoppers for a quick breakfast or brunch special? Aligning your promotions with the consumer’s frenzy—whether that’s an enticing discount on a to-go coffee and pastry or a midday break for a holiday-themed meal—can hook folks who’d have otherwise skipped dining.
Social media platforms like Instagram, Facebook, and TikTok are fantastic virtual menus for your holiday offerings. Share sneak peeks of new dishes, behind-the-scenes glimpses of holiday preparation in the kitchen, and festive photos of your dining room. Platforms like these often see a surge in holiday inspiration searches, so using relevant hashtags and geotags can boost your reach.
Rally previous diners by sending them personalized emails highlighting your holiday specials. A well-timed email inviting them to book a table for Black Friday or reserve a spot for their December gatherings can be the nudge they need. You can also offer loyal customers exclusive perks, such as a free appetizer or a loyalty bonus point multiplier, to increase engagement and foot traffic.
Partnering with nearby stores or local businesses for cross-promotions can give you a fresh audience. If there’s a neighborhood holiday market happening, consider sponsoring a booth and providing samples. If there’s a popular local clothing retailer, see if you can collaborate on a “Dine & Shop” deal. These alliances reinforce community spirit and diversify your customer base.
Forecasting is not just about revenue projections; it’s also about ensuring your restaurant is ready to execute effectively:
Additionally, clear communication across your entire team—servers, kitchen staff, and managers—maintains consistency in service quality. A daily review meeting that covers sales targets, menu changes, and special promotions keeps everyone operating in sync.
The holiday season isn’t just about boosting numbers—it’s about delivering memorable experiences. Diners come to celebrate with friends and family, and sometimes they arrive with high expectations of holiday spirit. Consider ways to enhance ambiance and service:
Happy diners are your best marketing asset. A heartfelt ambiance and consistently excellent service can spark positive word-of-mouth, online reviews, and repeat visits well beyond the holidays.
Modern technology can take your holiday forecasts to a new level. POS systems, multi-channel reservation platforms, and table management software compile real-time data and can generate predictive reports. You can integrate these tools with inventory management and staff scheduling software to get an all-encompassing view of your operations. Here are a few tech solutions to consider:
Some of these tools catch critical nuances, like how a sudden winter storm impacts diner no-shows or how an unexpectedly popular menu item might cause a short-term spike in revenue. With accurate real-time data, you can adapt on the fly and keep your holiday service smooth.
A well-executed holiday presence should also prime your business for strong early-year months. Experienced restaurant owners know the post–New Year’s lull can seem like a barren winter. Yet, if you capture positive reviews and gather customer information (always in a respectful, privacy-conscious way) during the holiday rush, you can maintain consistent engagement into January and February.
Some strategies to keep the fire alive beyond the holiday stretch include:
Turning a successful holiday season into a strong start to the following year is like preserving the warmth of freshly baked bread. With the right strategy, you’ll see that bustle carry over when many restaurants struggle.
Imagine The Cozy Spoon, a mid-sized American bistro in a bustling city center. Last year, they noticed a surge in foot traffic from holiday shoppers after 3 p.m. but faced frequent stock-outs of their popular peppermint mocha latte. They also realized that while their lunch hour was constantly busy, average check sizes remained lower than expected.
Armed with these insights, they decided to:
The Cozy Spoon’s holiday season turned out a record revenue jump. They also saw calmer operations—less frantic running out of ingredients and more satisfied diners due to faster payment lines and appealing lunch bundles. This case underscores how last year’s data unlocks more than just bigger sales; it can transform the entire guest experience.
Your forecast is an excellent guide, but nothing beats keeping a finger on the pulse once the holiday season is in full swing. Regular check-ins throughout November and December can highlight:
Immediate adjustments—like rotating out a slow-selling special or rearranging your floor plan to accommodate more large groups—can keep momentum going. Don’t wait until January to realize what went wrong or right; adapt now and reap the benefits in real time.
Even though this article focuses on using last year’s data for the holiday season, the mindset of data analysis should be year-round. Restaurants that actively review their metrics—from high season to slower months—tend to spot opportunities and address challenges more quickly. As you gather feedback from guests, incorporate it into your operational strategy. By doing so, you create a continuous improvement loop that keeps your diners happier month after month.
From a managerial perspective, encourage your team to value data, too. Teach staff to document daily observations: Did they see more families coming in for weekend brunch? Did a new marketing campaign bring in a wave of first-timers? This on-the-ground perspective complements the numbers from your POS system, painting a fuller picture of your restaurant’s performance.
Forecasting for Black Friday and December might feel like you’re juggling a dozen items on a tiny stove, but it’s entirely manageable—especially when you anchor every decision in clear, reliable data. By analyzing last year’s performance, being aware of external influences, setting ambitious yet realistic goals, and coordinating your staff and marketing tactics, you’ll navigate the holiday rush with confidence.
Keep in mind, your efforts here have a broader impact than just a single busy season. The guests who discover your restaurant this holiday season might become regulars, and the operational improvements you implement can pay dividends throughout the coming year. As soon as that last slice of holiday pie is served, you’ll already have an arsenal of insights ready for the next peak period. This cycle of reflection and action is how restaurants become beloved year after year.
1. How much historical data do I really need to forecast effectively? At the very least, collecting data from the same period last year can provide a starting framework. If you have two or more years of historical data, your forecasts will be more robust, as you can average out anomalies and have a broader perspective on trends.
2. What if the previous year was heavily impacted by external factors like severe weather or local mandates? In cases where last year’s numbers weren’t “normal,” consider them one data point rather than the sole guide. Look at multiple years if possible, factor in normal seasonal patterns, and be ready to pivot this year if those external factors reappear or change.
3. How can technology solutions like QR code payments help with my forecasting? Tech tools gather accurate, real-time data that feed into your forecasting models. For instance, QR code payment solutions record transaction timestamps, tip percentages, and table turnover rates. This data refines your understanding of sales patterns, making your forecasts more precise.
4. Should I run the exact same promotions as last year? Not necessarily. Assess which promotions worked well and which didn’t. Then, consider refining successful ones and discarding or significantly reworking those that yielded lower returns. Keeping things fresh can also generate renewed interest among your diners.
5. How often should I review my holiday season performance data? Weekly check-ins are typically enough for spotting emerging trends, but you might want to review daily during ultra-busy periods like Black Friday weekend. Frequent reviews let you make real-time adjustments to staffing, supply, or marketing for maximum impact.
